The Future of Democratic Nomination Process
In game theory, games between strategic players over time can often be solved by “backward induction”: looking at the outcome of the final stage of the game to determine whether the players will end the game before reaching the end of the game. Currently, through backward induction, Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic presidential nominee. Anyone other than Harris who wants to mount an open contest for a nomination or nominee faces a daunting task, and not much time to accomplish it. Even if the party announces a public proceeding, it’s likely that no one other than the vice president will attend.
A Chance for Democrats
Democrats have a chance not only to make up ground lost over the past three weeks but to make progress in the coming weeks. To be sure, Harris is a strong candidate, but not the strongest candidate right now. Democrats don’t need extra help to win the vice president’s home state of California, but rather swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Democratic Party will be in a better position if its candidates have experience as chief executives and governors. Democrats would be better served if presidential candidates did not take responsibility for border conditions or the crises in Israel and Gaza — regardless of whether the administration’s policies contributed to those problems.
The Role of Delegates
At the end of the public process, in the final stages of a sort of “beauty contest” mini-primary, the choice of nominee will belong to the delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. The majority of today’s delegates were selected as a reward for their loyalty to the Democratic Party and their personal and political connections to the primary winners. Ninety-nine percent of them are committed to Biden and Harris. Many of them are passionate about Harris, and longtime Biden supporters will take his support for the vice president seriously.
Challenges and Opportunities
Unfortunately, advocates of truly open, competitive processes do not have many options for solving the problem of backward induction. For the sake of the party, party leaders can implore them to keep an open mind and choose the candidate most likely to defeat Trump. Unless Democrats can get a credible commitment from delegates to put their own interests aside and act in the interest of the party, it’s unlikely that the party’s most impressive talents other than Harris will participate in the mini-primaries. The fierce logic of backward induction applies to them as well.
